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Positive Black Swans
Positive Black Swans by jurvetson 저작자 표시


블랙스완에 등장하는 Dr. John, Nero Tulip, 그리고 Fat Tony 에 빗대어 

Fragile, Robust, Anti-fragile 의 속성을 설명하고 있다.


불확실한 세상에서 좀 더 살아남기 위해 우리에게 필요한 것은 무엇인지

아래 도표의 키워드를 통해 힌트를 얻어보자


적당히 의심할 것!

가능하면 중복을 좋아하고

더하는 것보다는 빼는 것에 

그리고 큰 것보다는 작게 


- Functional redundancy

- Subtractive treatment (remove items from something, etc.)

- Skeptical, subtractive empiricism

- Acts of omission 

- Small but not specialized



The Triad


 

FRAGILE

ROBUST

ANTI-FRAGILE

Life

Dr John

Nero Tulip

Fat Tony

Mathematics

Concave

Linear

Convex

Biological & Economic Systems

Efficiency

Redundancy

Degeneracy (functional redundancy)

Science/Technology

Directed Research

Opportunistic research

Aggressive Tinkering (convex bricolage)

Political Systems

Nation-State;
Centralized

 

City-State; Decentralized

Knowledge

Episteme

Techne

 

Knowledge

Academia

Erudition

 

Thinkers

Plato, Aristotle, Averroes

Menodotus, Popper, Hayek, Nietzsche, Wittgenstein

NOBODY

Ethics (Aristotelian)

The weak

The strong

The Magnificent

Decision Making

Model-based decision making

Heuristic-based decision making

Convex heuristics

Reputation (profession)

Academic, Corporate executive, Pope, Bishop, Politician

Postal employee, Truck driver, train conductor

Artist, Writer

Medicine

Additive treatment (give medication)

 

Subtractive treatment (remove items from consumption, say carbs, etc.)

Reputation (class)

Middle Class

Minimum wage persons

Aristocracy, old money

Philosophy/Science

Rationalism

Empiricism

Skeptical, subtractive
empiricism

Finance

Short Option

 

Long Option

Knowledge

Positive Science

Negative Science

Art

Mythology

Damocles

 

Hydra

Decision Making

Acts of commission

 

Acts of omission

 

 

 

 

Literature

E-Reader

Book

Oral Tradition

Business

Industry

Small Business

Artisan

Food

Food Companies

 

Restaurants

Finance

Debt

Equity

Venture Capital

Finance

Public Debt

Private debt with no bailout

 

General

Large

Small but specialized

Small but not specialized

General

Monomodal

 

Barbell

Finance

Banks

Hedge Funds (some)

Hedge Funds
(some)

Business

Agency Problem

 

Principal Operated


도표 출처 : http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/notebook.htm



















블랙 스완
국내도서
저자 : 나심 니콜라스 탈레브(Nassim Nicholas Taleb) / 차익종역
출판 : 동녘사이언스 2008.10.24
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