 Positive Black Swans by jurvetson  |
블랙스완에 등장하는 Dr. John, Nero Tulip, 그리고 Fat Tony 에 빗대어
Fragile, Robust, Anti-fragile 의 속성을 설명하고 있다.
불확실한 세상에서 좀 더 살아남기 위해 우리에게 필요한 것은 무엇인지
아래 도표의 키워드를 통해 힌트를 얻어보자
적당히 의심할 것!
가능하면 중복을 좋아하고
더하는 것보다는 빼는 것에
그리고 큰 것보다는 작게
- Functional redundancy
- Subtractive treatment (remove items from something, etc.)
- Skeptical, subtractive empiricism
- Acts of omission
- Small but not specialized
The Triad
|
FRAGILE |
ROBUST |
ANTI-FRAGILE |
Life |
Dr John |
Nero Tulip |
Fat Tony |
Mathematics |
Concave |
Linear |
Convex |
Biological & Economic Systems |
Efficiency |
Redundancy |
Degeneracy (functional redundancy) |
Science/Technology |
Directed Research |
Opportunistic research |
Aggressive Tinkering (convex bricolage) |
Political Systems |
Nation-State; |
|
City-State; Decentralized |
Knowledge |
Episteme |
Techne |
|
Knowledge |
Academia |
Erudition |
|
Thinkers |
Plato, Aristotle, Averroes |
Menodotus, Popper, Hayek, Nietzsche, Wittgenstein |
NOBODY |
Ethics (Aristotelian) |
The weak |
The strong |
The Magnificent |
Decision Making |
Model-based decision making |
Heuristic-based decision making |
Convex heuristics |
Reputation (profession) |
Academic, Corporate executive, Pope, Bishop, Politician |
Postal employee, Truck driver, train conductor |
Artist, Writer |
Medicine |
Additive treatment (give medication) |
|
Subtractive treatment (remove items from consumption, say carbs, etc.) |
Reputation (class) |
Middle Class |
Minimum wage persons |
Aristocracy, old money |
Philosophy/Science |
Rationalism |
Empiricism |
Skeptical, subtractive |
Finance |
Short Option |
|
Long Option |
Knowledge |
Positive Science |
Negative Science |
Art |
Mythology |
Damocles |
|
Hydra |
Decision Making |
Acts of commission |
|
Acts of omission |
|
|
|
|
Literature |
E-Reader |
Book |
Oral Tradition |
Business |
Industry |
Small Business |
Artisan |
Food |
Food Companies |
|
Restaurants |
Finance |
Debt |
Equity |
Venture Capital |
Finance |
Public Debt |
Private debt with no bailout |
|
General |
Large |
Small but specialized |
Small but not specialized |
General |
Monomodal |
|
Barbell |
Finance |
Banks |
Hedge Funds (some) |
Hedge Funds |
Business |
Agency Problem |
|
Principal Operated |
도표 출처 : http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/notebook.htm
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